Thursday, April 19, 2018

Confirmation Bias and Paranoia - Explaining Trump

Watch Out, Ted Cruz. Beto is Coming

Opinion | Watch Out, Ted Cruz. Beto is Coming. 

- The New York Times: The Senate race in Texas just might be the happiest political fable ever.

Voters and the Tax Cut

Opinion | Scam I Amn’t: Voters and the Tax Cut

 - The New York Times: Why are people so much more woke than they were under Bush?

Cohen drops libel lawsuits over Russia dossier

Trump attorney Michael Cohen withdraws libel lawsuits over Russia dossier:

LA Times
 President Trump's personal attorney dropped a pair of libel lawsuits against BuzzFeed and investigation firm Fusion GPS amid the stir caused by an FBI search of the lawyer's files.

Defeat Denham... Vote for Dem front runner

Fund raising is Very important to defeating Jeff Denham...
 it just is.

Josh Harder for congress campaign - $1,292,855.
All other CD 10 Dem candidates Combined - $798,846.

To dump Denham 
vote for our CD 10 
Dem front runner 
Josh Harder.

Dems crush House Reeps in fundraising

 - POLITICO: It’s another bad omen for the GOP’s hopes of holding the House. ‘Some people just can’t be saved,’ says one strategist.

Why is Denham chasing jobs away from the Valley? Harder will do just the opposite? | The Modesto Bee

Why is Denham chasing jobs away from the Valley? Harder will do just the opposite?

 | The Modesto Bee: Harder understands that creating jobs requires investment in our Valley. He’ll work to create jobs, not run them off

Harder will put our priorities into action

Harder will put our prioties into action; Denham won't vote for change

 | The Modesto Bee: Our district should be represented by a younger person who cares about healthcare, jobs and immigration reform

Tenn Senate Race: Dem leads by 6 - 10%

Corker Won’t Campaign Against Democratic Ex-Governor Who Wants to Succeed Him:

 Former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen has significant crossover appeal, but just how much may depend on whether Tennessee voters think control of the Senate is at stake.That is the view of the retiring senator who Bredesen and Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn are seeking to replace, who thinks the Democrat might be ahead by six points today.

TV Ads are up in CA 39th Congressional District

Young Kim Launches First TV Ad in California’s 39th District:

 Young Kim is the first Republican to go on the airwaves in the crowded race for California’s 39th District, launching a television ad Thursday


Wednesday, April 18, 2018

CA Reep Dana Rohrabacher may get no Dem opposition in Nov

One of Congress’ Most Unpopular Republicans Might Not Even Have a Democratic Opponent in November

 – Mother Jones: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher might just get lucky, thanks to California's jungle primary.

DCCC moving to avoid CA electoral Disaster

DCCC elevates Democrat Gil Cisneros in hopes of uniting Democrats to flip Rep. Ed Royce's seat:

Publish Post National Democrats don’t want to be shut out this fall.

NY AG wants to prosecute despite presidential pardons

New York seeks authority to prosecute despite presidential pardons

 | TheHill: New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman (D) on Wednesday asked state lawmakers to amend the law so that prosecutors can charge individuals who have benefitted from a presidential pardon.

House Dems add five candidates to ‘Red to Blue’ program | TheHill

 | TheHill: The DCCC is signaling its preference in a few contested House primaries.

Texas Poll shows Cruz in dead heat with Dem... WOW!

Cruz running neck and neck with Dem challenger

 | TheHill: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is in a statistical dead heat with Rep. Beto O’Rourke (Texas), his Democratic challenger, a poll released Wednesday showed.

Will Mueller firing lead to riots?

Pittsburgh police told to prepare for protests over potential Mueller firing:

 report | TheHill: Police detectives in Pittsburgh have been instructed to start bringing their riot gear to work over fears that President Trump could soon fire special counsel Robert Mueller and set off widespread protests.

So... CD 10... Who is our front runner? Yep, you just thought the name.

Imagine that it's a few days before the Nov 7 election. Imagine that for every twelve Dem yard signs there were a hundred Denham yard signs. For every two hundred Dem mailers there were two thousand Reep mailers. For every one Dem TV or radio ad there have been scores of them for Jeff Denham. Think about the same proportions for newspaper ads and online ads. For every Dem volunteer phone bank call to a voter or volunteer door knock at a house there were nearly as many from Denham's paid campaign crew.

Kind of a miserable picture isn't it. In every race against Denham the Democrat was a better person with better policy positions... every race. Yep, you can see the difference, Denham always has enough money to make far more voter contacts than we do.
But it is kinda complicated, no race is only about money but having enough money to stay close in the number of voter contacts that money can pay for. Ads, signs, calls, door knocks are the voter contacts. The Democratic candidate has to be able to stay close in total voter contacts. Then the messaging can really make a difference. The Dem message of hope and fairness is better but will be overwhelmed by the Republican message of fear and hate if both messages don't reach the voters in close enough numbers. Not necessarily equal or greater but close enough.
This is why fundraising is a very important ability among Democratic candidates. All of our current candidates are good people with strong Democratic values, but who can raise enough money to pay for enough voter contacts to win.  We need to vote so a Dem makes it to the  top two on June 5... or we lose everything.

Name.......................................Total receipts as of 3/31/18

Jeff Denham(R)........................$2,677,709.37

Ted Howze(R-ringer)................(no report yet)

Mike Barkley(D)..............................$46,346.71

Michael Eggman(D)......................$208,157.34

Josh Harder(D)..........................$1,292,855.43

Virginia Madueno(D).....................$243,851.16

Sue Zwahlen(D).............................$300,492.06

Figures are from the Federal Elections Commission end of first quarter - March 31, 2018
(click here)

Monday, April 16, 2018

Cohen in Prague proves part of Dossier

Mueller has evidence that Trump confidant went to Prague, despite denials 

| McClatchy Washington Bureau: The FBI has evidence putting Trump lawyer Michael Cohen in Prague in August or early September 2016; if true, that would confirm at least part of the infamous dossier prepared by an ex-British spy.

Sunday, April 15, 2018

CD 10: How many votes could be spoiled in June 5 race

Whoa there, big fella... this could be very important for CD 10 !

Tens of thousands of votes are in danger of not being counted in California's biggest races this June:

 California elections officials are sounding the alarm about voting for too many candidates, or not enough.